Thu, Mar 30, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 28 | 29 | 530 |
| MTL | 16 | 07 | 17 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23MTLSean FarrellAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 4:09FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 3:59FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 5:57FLAMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 10:15FLAAnton LundellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
- P3 18:35MTLRafael Harvey-PinardPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 19:40FLAMatthew TkachukENAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:32MTLMichael Pezzetta: Interference2 min
- P2 3:12MTLJustin Barron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30FLABrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:18FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell12:08
xG 1.51–0.09 (94%)attempts 18–6goals 2–1
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov12:03
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Reinhart – Lomberg11:32
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Cousins – White – Smith6:31
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling16:54
xG 0.99–0.12 (89%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Montour16:13
xG 1.03–0.26 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Gudas – Mahura14:13
xG 0.94–0.50 (65%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Tierney – Gurianov – Pezzetta3:48
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Evans – Harvey-Pinard5:45
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Drouin – Gurianov – Ylonen7:42
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Belzile – Drouin – Ylonen3:23
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron3:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Harris7:39
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Matheson5:02
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).