Thu, Mar 30, 2023·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 315 | 27 | 529 |
| CHI | 09 | 112 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25STLJakub VranaAssists: Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:24CHIAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:59STLLogan BrownAssists: Justin Faulk, Josh Leivo · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:37STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 0:31CHITyler JohnsonPPAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Lukas Reichel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 9:25STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Sammy Blais, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 10:01CHIBoris KatchoukAssists: Seth Jones, Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 18:47STLBrandon SaadENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:15CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:05STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:41STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52STLJordan Binnington: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:09CHINikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Walker won the faceoff against Khaira
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Blais – Kyrou11:36
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko9:16
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Leivo – Brown – Neighbours8:15
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Vrana12:00
xG 0.54–0.98 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Rosen11:01
xG 0.85–0.48 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Rosen2:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Dickinson – Raddysh10:43
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bjork – Reichel10:29
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk9:24
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Wagner – Entwistle – Johnson8:16
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones16:24
xG 1.43–0.73 (66%)attempts 24–15goals 1–1
- Englund – Zaitsev12:04
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Murphy – Vlasic17:51
xG 0.43–0.78 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).