Fri, Mar 31, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 02 | 19 | 120 | 02 | 233 |
| BUF | 111 | 113 | 09 | 11 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 7:39BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:17NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Filip Chytil, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 9:45NYRAdam FoxAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- OT 1:50BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:07NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:23NYRArtemi Panarin: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:09BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Motte10:05
xG 1.47–0.19 (89%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière13:56
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin3:11
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Tarasenko – Zibanejad7:43
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider11:39
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Fox13:10
xG 1.00–0.92 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Fox – Miller2:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt10:23
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Greenway – Jost9:04
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka10:33
xG 0.89–0.80 (53%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:34
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dahlin – Power2:13
xG 0.05–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power18:46
xG 1.21–1.16 (51%)attempts 27–15goals 2–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin18:05
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).