Fri, Mar 31, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Dallas Stars 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 211 | 212 | 531 |
| ARI | 29 | 04 | 05 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Esa Lindell, Jason Robertson · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 5:32ARIJuuso VälimäkiPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Travis Boyd · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:14ARIConnor MackeyAssists: Travis Boyd, Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 0:53DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 19:38DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:56DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 18:59DALMax DomiENAssists: Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.80 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:22DALJoel Kiviranta: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34ARIBrett Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:28ARINick Schmaltz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:47ARIJoshua Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53DALWyatt Johnston: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:13ARIVictor Soderstrom: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Faksa – Domi8:27
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:17
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Glendening – Dellandrea – Kiviranta7:30
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta2:41
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell13:23
xG 0.69–0.51 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen9:48
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Heiskanen8:37
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:32
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Smith – Kelemen6:59
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer10:23
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli9:57
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Välimäki12:59
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Soderstrom – Mackey10:51
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Moser2:40
xG 0.06–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).