Sat, Apr 1, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 112 | 211 | 435 |
| PIT | 14 | 012 | 28 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20BOSCharlie McAvoyPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 7:33PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Mark Friedman · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 1:41BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 4:09PITBryan RustUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 7:07BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 12:30PITJake GuentzelAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:34BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:21PITChad Ruhwedel: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:35PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:15BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:55BOSJake DeBrusk: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:10BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P3 12:30BOSJakub Lauko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 15:12BOSDavid Krejci: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:03BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Zacha – DeBrusk8:37
xG 0.55–0.00 (99%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Lauko6:15
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hathaway – Frederic9:30
xG 0.06–0.37 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Bertuzzi – Pastrnak10:35
xG 0.60–1.37 (30%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Clifton10:31
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo11:55
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Orlov – Carlo2:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (2%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:52
xG 0.84–0.41 (68%)attempts 10–17goals 3–0
- Granlund – Heinen – Poehling6:20
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Carter – Archibald – O'Connor5:36
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell8:49
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin13:11
xG 0.97–0.60 (62%)attempts 14–20goals 2–1
- Ruhwedel – Friedman8:03
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Petry – Joseph12:05
xG 0.07–0.71 (8%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).