Sat, Apr 1, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
San Jose Sharks 7, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 313 | 110 | 38 | 731 |
| ARI | 110 | 06 | 115 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30SJSNoah GregorAssists: Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:38SJSJacob PetersonPPAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 13:02SJSKyle CriscuoloGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 17:07ARIJ.J. MoserPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Victor Soderstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 1:41SJSDanil GushchinPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jacob MacDonald · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 8:00SJSNoah GregorAssists: Nico Sturm · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 10:10SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.09 xG6–1
- P3 14:47SJSNoah GregorAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.07 xG7–1
- P3 15:10ARIMilos KelemenAssists: Jack McBain, Brett Ritchie · Deflected, 0.17 xG7–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:53ARILaurent Dauphin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:47SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:08ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:52ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:54ARIPatrik Nemeth: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:53SJSJacob MacDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 16:54ARIJoshua Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:22ARIMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:00ARIJoshua Brown: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Peterson – Gushchin8:19
xG 0.24–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Labanc – Gregor – Sturm7:29
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 3–0
- Lorentz – Criscuolo – Viel9:58
xG 0.58–0.66 (47%)attempts 4–16goals 1–1
- Couture – Zetterlund – Bordeleau9:27
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Thrun2:47
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson11:28
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Ferraro9:33
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:46
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 21–5goals 0–2
- Ritchie – McBain – Kelemen6:58
xG 0.39–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer9:20
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Dauphin – Crouse – Maccelli8:02
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Moser11:40
xG 1.03–0.47 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Soderstrom7:28
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Brown – Mackey6:28
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).