Sun, Apr 2, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 18 | 217 | 534 |
| WSH | 06 | 18 | 114 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:17NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 15:19NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Filip Chytil · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:00NYRKaapo KakkoGWGAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 13:23WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 5:53NYRVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 11:44WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 14:14NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.21 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:27WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min
- P2 5:58WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:04NYRJimmy Vesey: Interference2 min
- P2 19:32WSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:32NYRJimmy Vesey: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:15WSHConor Sheary: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:29WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:29WSHMartin Fehérváry: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:29NYRNiko Mikkola: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:29NYRBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière12:48
xG 1.31–0.27 (83%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin10:06
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Kane – Kreider – Zibanejad10:34
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte8:27
xG 0.17–2.06 (8%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller14:49
xG 1.25–0.15 (90%)attempts 20–7goals 3–0
- Mikkola – Fox14:14
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Harpur – Schneider15:10
xG 0.21–2.26 (8%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Milano – Protas8:19
xG 1.59–0.32 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome11:31
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Dowd – Mantha – Aube-Kubel7:52
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Kuznetsov – Sheary10:55
xG 0.90–0.75 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin5:21
xG 1.48–0.37 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:28
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Jensen – Sandin10:03
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).