Mon, Apr 3, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Arizona Coyotes 1, Seattle Kraken 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 18 | 06 | 121 |
| SEA | 211 | 210 | 411 | 832 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:07SEAJared McCannSHGWGAssists: Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:44ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Connor Mackey · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:58SEACarson SoucyAssists: Daniel Sprong, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 15:03SEAJared McCannAssists: Carson Soucy, Philipp Grubauer · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 1:18SEAWill BorgenAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 11:01SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 18:05SEAMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Ryan Donato, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–7
- P3 19:33SEARyan DonatoAssists: Brandon Tanev, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–8
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:17ARIBarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:10ARILaurent Dauphin: Interference2 min
- P1 14:07SEAYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:18SEAAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 6:53ARIJ.J. Moser: Interference2 min
- P2 17:42SEADaniel Sprong: Interference2 min
- P3 7:02ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:19SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:19ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:58ARILawson Crouse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:21ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:21ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:21ARIJoshua Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33ARIConnor Mackey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33SEARyan Donato: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33SEACarson Soucy: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:10
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Ritchie – McBain – Kelemen6:53
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Boyd – O'Brien – Fischer5:37
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dauphin – Crouse – Maccelli8:01
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Välimäki – Mackey2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Moser11:57
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Brown – Välimäki10:05
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Geekie6:44
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen7:40
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev6:57
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:01
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen10:56
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Schultz – Soucy12:33
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:05
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).