Tue, Apr 4, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 5, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 211 | 13 | 521 |
| MTL | 010 | 07 | 07 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:09DETDavid PerronAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 7:12DETMatt LuffAssists: Jonatan Berggren · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 18:20DETJoseph VelenoPPAssists: Jake Walman, Dominik Kubalik · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 7:26DETDavid PerronAssists: Olli Maatta, Jordan Oesterle · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:13DETBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:21DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min
- P2 12:02MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:02DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:32MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:46MTLMichael Pezzetta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27MTLDenis Gurianov: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:56DETJoseph Veleno: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin8:03
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Czarnik – Luff – Berggren8:44
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Copp – Suter – Raymond9:25
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Veleno6:48
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Oesterle11:07
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Edvinsson14:03
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider13:11
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Drouin – Gurianov5:20
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Drouin – Gurianov – Ylonen2:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Armia – Suzuki – Farrell2:58
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Evans9:41
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Barron11:29
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Kovacevic – Schueneman9:09
xG 0.20–0.16 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schueneman3:10
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).