Tue, Apr 4, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 09 | 218 | 234 |
| STL | 110 | 212 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:04STLTyler PitlickAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Nathan Walker · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:26STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Sammy Blais, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 5:51PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nick Seeler, Scott Laughton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:43PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Cam York · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:28STLAlexey ToropchenkoENAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:11STLJakub Vrana: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:23PHICam York: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:22PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18STLLogan Brown: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:14STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:28PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAllison – Cates – Farabee6:08
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost7:23
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Allison – Frost – Farabee2:58
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Deslauriers – Laughton2:32
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – York4:58
xG 0.70–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Provorov – York7:22
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Attard3:08
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko10:52
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Leivo – Blais – Brown8:40
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou10:29
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Vrana – Kapanen – Neighbours8:39
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRosen – Kessel9:58
xG 0.51–0.07 (87%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug10:21
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Leddy – Parayko15:43
xG 0.55–1.00 (35%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).