Tue, Apr 4, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 02 | 115 | 216 | 333 |
| LAK | 03 | 011 | 17 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:30EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 10:26LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Trevor Moore · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 12:40EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 18:24EDMDarnell NurseENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:19EDMMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P1 13:27LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:19LAKMatt Roy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:24EDMKlim Kostin: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:14EDMNick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:14LAKAlex Iafallo: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02LAKSean Walker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51EDMWarren Foegele: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:41EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:59LAKViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Janmark – Yamamoto2:10
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto3:45
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid7:17
xG 0.11–0.07 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Ryan – Kostin3:58
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse12:57
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard10:24
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais7:18
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore11:27
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:04
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – MacEwen – Kupari3:31
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Lizotte – Kaliyev7:45
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Gavrikov14:57
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Walker – Bjornfot6:24
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Roy – Durzi10:36
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).