Wed, Apr 5, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 113 | 215 | 335 |
| WPG | 19 | 012 | 014 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 6:06CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 4:08CGYWalker DuehrGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis, Nikita Zadorov · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 10:40CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:44WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:57WPGJosh Morrissey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:52CGYNick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:07CGYMilan Lucic: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 0:00WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:06WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:06CGYChris Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:06CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:06CGYJacob Markstrom: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:06WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:42WPGDylan Samberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:12CGYTrevor Lewis: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:02WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Coleman – Ritchie7:38
xG 0.25–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr6:54
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:53
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Backlund – Huberdeau – Mangiapane7:11
xG 0.27–0.80 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Stecher10:56
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin11:40
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson11:36
xG 0.07–1.05 (6%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers6:21
xG 0.66–0.29 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:06
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Dubois10:36
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Barron2:37
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk10:50
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:16
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg6:13
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).