Thu, Apr 6, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Arizona Coyotes 2, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 16 | 115 | 229 |
| SEA | 113 | 27 | 114 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:36SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:28SEAVince DunnUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG0–2
- P2 5:52SEAJordan EberleGWGAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 12:00ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 3:37SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 19:20ARILaurent DauphinAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 12:48ARIConnor Mackey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:30SEAJamie Oleksiak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:14ARILiam O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 16:49SEARyan Donato: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:30ARIMilos Kelemen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:30SEABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:30ARIMilos Kelemen: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:30ARIMilos Kelemen: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:55ARILiam O'Brien: Instigator2 min
- P3 13:55ARIJuuso Välimäki: Interference2 min
- P3 13:55SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:55ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:55SEAWill Borgen: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:55ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – O'Brien – Fischer8:10
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dauphin – Kelemen8:18
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller3:18
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain9:58
xG 0.28–0.99 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Soderstrom13:50
xG 1.11–0.17 (86%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Moser13:29
xG 0.46–1.46 (24%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Välimäki – Mackey14:11
xG 0.25–1.25 (17%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:13
xG 1.44–0.38 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 3–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:10
xG 1.28–0.45 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Tanev – Geekie2:15
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev4:39
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:39
xG 2.12–0.69 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:22
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Schultz – Soucy12:19
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).