Sat, Apr 8, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 110 | 012 | 334 |
| BUF | 16 | 212 | 112 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:34CARSeth JarvisAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 14:56CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:04BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:04CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jesse Puljujarvi · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 18:18BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 6:15BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:09CARShayne Gostisbehere: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:43CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:51BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:36CARJalen Chatfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:04CARMartin Necas: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P3 15:30BUFJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Puljujarvi11:50
xG 1.29–0.93 (58%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis11:08
xG 0.98–0.64 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Stastny – Stepan – Drury5:07
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:33
xG 0.73–0.62 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:21
xG 1.21–0.73 (63%)attempts 26–15goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:08
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:15
xG 0.82–1.09 (43%)attempts 16–20goals 1–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:59
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt11:54
xG 0.83–0.78 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Jost – Quinn – Peterka3:59
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–2
- Greenway – Thompson – Cozens8:49
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power9:04
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Stillman – Jokiharju2:08
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson8:41
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).