Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 018 | 212 | 04 | 0 | 243 |
| VAN | 213 | 012 | 04 | 04 | 1 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03VANCole McWardAssists: Dakota Joshua, Jack Studnicka · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 13:29VANElias PetterssonSHAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 0:38CGYElias LindholmAssists: Dillon Dube, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 6:06CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Andrei Kuzmenko scored
- 2. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
- 4. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
- 5. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 6. CGY Tyler Toffoli stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:59VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:03CGYTroy Stecher: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:26CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:14CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:06VANVitali Kravtsov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Coleman – Ritchie8:30
xG 0.78–0.20 (80%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube11:00
xG 1.09–0.79 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Backlund – Huberdeau – Mangiapane8:06
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr8:47
xG 0.03–0.37 (8%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin15:46
xG 1.56–0.36 (81%)attempts 25–8goals 0–1
- Weegar – Andersson15:57
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Stecher12:15
xG 0.63–0.70 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Studnicka – Aman7:17
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Garland – Pettersson – Kravtsov7:18
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser12:33
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Boeser – Aman2:48
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burroughs – Bear2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Bear2:15
xG 0.00–0.16 (1%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Hirose12:26
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).