Mon, Apr 10, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 09 | 217 | 240 |
| WSH | 310 | 010 | 25 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36WSHDylan StromeAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 1:03WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Craig Smith, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 13:13WSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.29 xG0–3
- P3 14:52NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 15:44WSHTom WilsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–4
- P3 16:43NYICasey CizikasAssists: Bo Horvat, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 18:50WSHDylan StromeENAssists: Conor Sheary, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:43WSHCraig Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:36WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:36NYIPierre Engvall: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:44WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:39WSHJohn Carlson: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Horvat4:14
xG 0.57–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom6:27
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas4:54
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:50
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson3:17
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Dobson – Bolduc4:22
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson5:44
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Smith – Snively11:13
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Wilson – Sheary – Strome10:21
xG 0.75–0.69 (52%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Milano2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Protas6:15
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Alexeyev12:32
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:09
xG 0.63–0.81 (44%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Jensen – Sandin14:37
xG 0.68–0.86 (44%)attempts 13–28goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).