Tue, Apr 11, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 18 | 07 | 121 |
| CAR | 212 | 111 | 15 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46CARStefan NoesenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:50CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:05DETRobert HaggAssists: Joseph Veleno, David Perron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 9:10CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 19:18CARJesperi KotkaniemiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:14CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:31DETJordan Oesterle: Holding2 min
- P2 18:55CARBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Czarnik – Hirose7:34
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Suter – Berggren8:35
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Copp2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Raymond11:02
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider14:36
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Maatta11:15
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom8:43
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook11:47
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis12:08
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Noesen – Necas – Kotkaniemi11:33
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Stastny – Puljujarvi – Drury8:21
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce17:17
xG 0.94–0.52 (65%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:36
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin16:39
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).