Wed, Apr 12, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 04 | 011 | 124 |
| CGY | 014 | 112 | 223 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26SJSNoah GregorAssists: Radim Simek · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 13:36CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 4:01CGYNikita ZadorovGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:00CGYNikita ZadorovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:43CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:36CGYMilan Lucic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:16SJSFabian Zetterlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Peterson10:03
xG 1.07–0.30 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Gregor – Zetterlund – Sturm7:07
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
- Lorentz – Gregor – Zetterlund2:01
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Labanc – Svechnikov – Lorentz8:15
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Thrun7:29
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Simek – Knyzhov10:16
xG 0.49–0.94 (34%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
- Benning – Ferraro16:19
xG 0.28–1.25 (19%)attempts 12–28goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pelletier – Coronato12:18
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 25–8goals 1–0
- Backlund – Huberdeau – Mangiapane12:01
xG 1.04–0.71 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:49
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Coleman9:01
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Stecher14:40
xG 1.08–0.36 (75%)attempts 30–11goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:36
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov16:45
xG 0.87–1.10 (44%)attempts 24–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).