Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 015 | 05 | 032 |
| TBL | 13 | 014 | 415 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 7:27TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Brayden Point, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 10:47TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 15:59TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.73 xG0–4
- P3 19:50TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:28TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:42TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:42DETAndrew Copp: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22DETGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 7:54TBLNick Perbix: Holding2 min
- P3 10:29DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Veleno – Berggren10:05
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Larkin12:28
xG 0.59–1.00 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
- Copp – Suter – Raymond10:04
xG 0.28–0.90 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Walman – Seider9:41
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Maatta12:14
xG 0.52–0.95 (35%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Hagg – Lindstrom11:19
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Hagel – Eyssimont9:57
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:48
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Colton10:02
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point11:11
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev15:59
xG 1.58–0.81 (66%)attempts 22–22goals 1–0
- Cole – Perbix13:24
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Fleury15:25
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).