Thu, Apr 13, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 312 | 010 | 00 | 333 |
| BUF | 012 | 213 | 110 | 11 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:43BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 2:46BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 4:27OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:11OTTDylan GambrellAssists: Egor Sokolov · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 12:36OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 3:03BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 1:18BUFCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:04BUFKyle Okposo: Charging2 min
- P1 15:35OTTTyler Kleven: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:59BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:46OTTDylan Gambrell: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:33OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:36BUFJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Brown – Joseph – Kastelic8:28
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle12:32
xG 0.79–0.97 (45%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Gauthier – Gambrell – Sokolov3:57
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:43
xG 0.30–0.71 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Sanderson2:43
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Guenette – Kleven8:38
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Brannstrom – Zub2:28
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt9:56
xG 0.97–0.55 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Olofsson3:17
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Greenway – Thompson – Cozens8:28
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka2:38
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin18:26
xG 1.32–0.79 (63%)attempts 24–20goals 1–1
- Lyubushkin – Power14:56
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Stillman – Bryson8:29
xG 0.63–0.59 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).