Wed, Oct 11, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 09 | 29 | 330 |
| CAR | 014 | 218 | 310 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Artem Zub, Parker Kelly · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:55CARMichael BuntingPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 17:57CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Martin Necas, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 0:20CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 5:14OTTParker KellySHAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 5:49OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 7:51CARBrady SkjeiGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 11:05CARJaccob SlavinSHAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:45CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P1 3:38OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:16OTTThomas Chabot: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 1:52OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38CARMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P2 6:04CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:17OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:17OTTMark Kastelic: Interference2 min
- P2 10:17CARJordan Martinook: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:26OTTTravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:08CARBrett Pesce: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:56OTTTim Stützle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:23OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChartier – Joseph – Kelly2:09
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Joseph – Batherson – Greig4:32
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Chartier4:08
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Batherson – Kastelic – Kelly2:02
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chychrun – Brannstrom2:22
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Chabot2:35
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:57
xG 0.81–0.95 (46%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook9:50
xG 0.93–0.37 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Bunting – Aho – Jarvis9:24
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi5:53
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Necas – Drury2:35
xG 0.01–0.15 (4%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:45
xG 0.94–0.38 (71%)attempts 25–10goals 3–1
- Burns – Slavin9:50
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).