Thu, Oct 12, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 19 | 210 | 531 |
| BUF | 07 | 15 | 013 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:22NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 12:49NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 18:30BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Owen Power, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 11:34NYRChris KreiderSHAssists: Mika Zibanejad, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P3 18:31NYRJacob TroubaENAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:14NYRChris Kreider: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:14BUFJordan Greenway: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:06BUFZach Benson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:32BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:23NYRErik Gustafsson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:18BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:51NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:40NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:54BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPanarin – Chytil – Lafrenière10:38
xG 0.95–0.08 (92%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko9:45
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Trocheck – Cuylle11:36
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Pitlick – Goodrow7:31
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider12:35
xG 0.67–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:21
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller15:27
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson9:51
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson10:58
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka11:40
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:02
xG 0.23–1.02 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Samuelsson2:53
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power11:28
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Dahlin – Power4:01
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).