Fri, Oct 13, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Arizona Coyotes 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 114 | 110 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 433 |
| NJD | 08 | 314 | 011 | 03 | 0 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22ARIMathew DumbaAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:23ARISean DurziPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 8:09NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 12:29NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:53NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:55ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Logan Cooley · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Timo Meier stopped
- 2. ARI Nick Bjugstad scored
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 4. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:37NJDErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:57ARIJ.J. Moser: Interference2 min
- P2 3:00NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:51NJDJohn Marino: Interference2 min
- P2 7:51ARILogan Cooley: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:55NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:46NJDJohn Marino: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:04ARINick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45ARIJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:27ARISean Durzi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:57ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:43NJDTimo Meier: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:44NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:57NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Carcone – McBain5:53
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton9:37
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Cooley8:20
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:43
xG 0.33–0.99 (25%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Välimäki9:47
xG 1.37–0.17 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Durzi7:40
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Dumba – Moser10:39
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Bratt – Hughes10:22
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Nosek – Bastian – McLeod5:37
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Holtz6:16
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer8:53
xG 0.49–1.13 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:55
xG 0.82–1.06 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Marino – Bahl11:07
xG 0.04–0.36 (9%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Hughes11:25
xG 0.34–1.01 (25%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).