Mon, Oct 16, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 313 | 010 | 428 |
| CBJ | 09 | 04 | 010 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51DETShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Joseph Veleno, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:45DETMichael RasmussenAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 11:11DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 12:07DETAndrew CoppPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:33DETAustin Czarnik: Holding2 min
- P1 15:51CBJIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:51CBJBoone Jenner: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:11CBJSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46DETJustin Holl: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17CBJJake Bean: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:06CBJSean Kuraly: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:35DETDaniel Sprong: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:43CBJErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:43DETKlim Kostin: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:33DETAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:45CBJEmil Bemstrom: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Czarnik – Kostin6:41
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond8:33
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Perron – Sprong – Veleno9:35
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Copp – Compher – Rasmussen9:06
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere12:09
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Holl13:52
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Walman – Seider11:47
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Roslovic – Bemstrom4:53
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko9:03
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Laine – Texier – Fantilli8:13
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Bemstrom2:18
xG 0.05–0.12 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Jiricek13:04
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bean – Boqvist2:12
xG 0.00–0.14 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Boqvist7:50
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).