Tue, Oct 17, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Arizona Coyotes 0, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 03 | 03 | 08 | 014 |
| NYI | 011 | 115 | 08 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:47NYIMathew BarzalPPGWGAssists: Noah Dobson, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:38NYIHudson Fasching: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:51ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:40ARIBarrett Hayton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:12NYIMathew Barzal: Holding2 min
- P2 8:33ARIMichael Carcone: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:00ARIJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Maccelli – Cooley4:02
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:34
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain4:09
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Cooley3:48
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Dermott15:25
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Durzi5:20
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser10:19
xG 0.51–0.81 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Fasching9:35
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:03
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:14
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom9:42
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Bolduc7:20
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Pulock – Romanov11:20
xG 0.58–0.40 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson2:00
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).