Tue, Oct 17, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 118 | 112 | 412 | 642 |
| SJS | 15 | 26 | 05 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:06CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 8:54CARJaccob SlavinSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 9:11SJSFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:06SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Henry Thrun, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 9:07CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 11:51CARSeth JarvisPPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 14:53CARMartin NecasAssists: Michael Bunting, Brady Skjei · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 15:08CARBrett PesceAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:29SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:17CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:01SJSFilip Zadina: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:18SJSAnthony Duclair: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:54SJSAlexander Barabanov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51CARDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:10CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06CARMichael Bunting: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:45SJSAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:30CARTony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00CARTony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:08SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:57SJSMario Ferraro: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bunting – Necas7:09
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis7:50
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook7:49
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce12:18
xG 0.75–0.05 (93%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin10:02
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield8:06
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Zetterlund – Sturm5:31
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Bordeleau – Eklund7:37
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hertl – Duclair – Zadina6:43
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Kunin – Peterson – Barabanov4:44
xG 0.01–0.42 (2%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun4:03
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Thrun2:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Benning – Thrun5:26
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).