Tue, Oct 17, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 19 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 226 |
| VGK | 06 | 112 | 112 | 04 | 2 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:52DALCraig SmithAssists: Tyler Seguin, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 13:03VGKKaedan KorczakAssists: Brett Howden, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 2:50DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 17:01VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 3. VGK Shea Theodore scored
- 4. DAL Matt Duchene scored
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 6. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:58DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:28VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P2 1:10DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:10VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:58DALMatt Duchene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:40VGKPaul Cotter: Interference2 min
- P2 13:15VGKBen Hutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:15DALMason Marchment: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:05DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:37DALTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Faksa – Dellandrea7:44
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:00
xG 0.17–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:12
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:39
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Harley15:55
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen14:54
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Lindell – Lundkvist12:16
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Howden7:41
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy7:23
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter2:31
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:40
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:34
xG 0.72–0.45 (61%)attempts 19–19goals 0–1
- Hague – Korczak6:43
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hague – Pachal9:23
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).