Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 26 | 110 | 329 |
| TBL | 113 | 218 | 15 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 0:14VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:02VANTyler MyersAssists: Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:43TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Conor Sheary, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 16:52TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 4:42TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:11VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:00VANSam Lafferty: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:22VANFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:48TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:50VANMark Friedman: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:50TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:14VANIan Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser14:04
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Garland – Pettersson – Kuzmenko9:56
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Joshua – Beauvillier – Suter9:24
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Studnicka – Hoglander7:24
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes18:54
xG 0.95–0.66 (59%)attempts 26–16goals 1–0
- Cole – Myers12:12
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Soucy – Friedman11:29
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Sheary – Eyssimont8:31
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Paul – Jeannot – Merela8:56
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet10:22
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel12:02
xG 0.16–0.93 (15%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev13:56
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- de Haan – Perbix13:18
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- de Haan – Cernak3:02
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).