Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 6, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 315 | 216 | 642 |
| STL | 07 | 115 | 14 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:42ARINick BjugstadPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 2:34ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 7:02STLJakub VranaAssists: Marco Scandella, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 7:44ARIMichael CarconeGWGAssists: Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 13:58ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 2:09ARIJason ZuckerPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 3:16STLSammy BlaisAssists: Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.40 xG5–2
- P3 16:59ARISean DurziPPAssists: Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.13 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:01STLSammy Blais: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 4:09ARITroy Stecher: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:26ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:42STLAlexey Toropchenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49STLMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
- P3 16:49STLSammy Blais: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:49ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Alexandrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:41
xG 1.06–0.61 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 2–2
- Zucker – Maccelli – Cooley11:38
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – McBain11:51
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Carcone8:27
xG 0.07–0.49 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Dermott15:35
xG 0.96–0.49 (66%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Stecher – Välimäki15:31
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Durzi – Moser15:15
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kapanen – Toropchenko5:44
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Blais9:26
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours5:09
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Alexandrov4:08
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Krug14:54
xG 0.73–0.85 (46%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
- Leddy – Parayko16:37
xG 0.08–0.56 (12%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Scandella – Tucker15:35
xG 0.37–1.11 (25%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).