Thu, Oct 19, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 212 | 15 | 324 |
| ANA | 117 | 01 | 111 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37ANATroy TerryAssists: Trevor Zegras, Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 10:03DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:06DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 1:01ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 6:47DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Sam Steel, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:29ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:50DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:43ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P1 17:02DALMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:30DALJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min
- P2 9:46ANATrevor Zegras: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:27DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:47ANATrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:51ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment8:22
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:43
xG 0.85–0.39 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel6:11
xG 0.02–0.01 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:36
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley4:55
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley11:32
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist9:47
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Zegras – Carlsson12:24
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Groulx5:49
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason8:13
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish11:30
xG 0.57–1.16 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov9:56
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Gudas – LaCombe15:07
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Fowler – Luneau13:35
xG 0.42–1.51 (22%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).