Fri, Oct 20, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 014 | 011 | 112 | 137 |
| CBJ | 011 | 19 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:29CBJSean KuralyAssists: Justin Danforth, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 8:45CBJJustin DanforthGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 10:37CGYElias LindholmSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 17:39CBJZach WerenskiENUnassisted · Snap, 0.38 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:04CBJCole Sillinger: Interference2 min
- P1 9:04CGYNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:04CBJCole Sillinger: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:39CBJSean Kuraly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:59CGYMatt Coronato: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:23CGYA.J. Greer: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:00CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYRasmus Andersson: Elbowing5 min
- P3 0:00CGYRasmus Andersson: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Dube – Ruzicka11:29
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane11:02
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr7:49
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato8:33
xG 0.11–0.41 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov14:39
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Tanev – Gilbert11:56
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:38
xG 0.54–1.32 (29%)attempts 12–27goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Roslovic – Danforth8:13
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger7:56
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko13:53
xG 0.73–0.89 (45%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Laine – Texier – Fantilli11:11
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Jiricek11:36
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov2:48
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Bean12:01
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).