Sat, Oct 21, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 08 | 19 | 125 |
| BUF | 013 | 217 | 112 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:37BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 19:23BUFMattias SamuelssonGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 2:40BUFDylan CozensAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 18:39NYINoah DobsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:15NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:43BUFHenri Jokiharju: Holding2 min
- P1 8:07NYIPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:16BUFMattias Samuelsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:16BUFAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:16NYIAdam Pelech: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:16BUFAlex Tuch: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:56NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jost won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:46
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall8:47
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Lee – Pageau – Gauthier7:51
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:30
xG 0.51–1.02 (33%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Aho – Bolduc7:16
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock3:28
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov3:39
xG 0.04–0.28 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Thompson – Cozens9:32
xG 1.37–0.43 (76%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost8:46
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt7:45
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka6:53
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin13:46
xG 1.13–0.20 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Power10:57
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power2:08
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).