Sat, Oct 21, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 117 | 010 | 220 | 15 | 452 |
| TBL | 38 | 012 | 011 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 6:26TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 10:04TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 13:29TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 12:11TORMatthew KniesAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 14:33TORMatthew KniesAssists: Max Domi, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 4:05TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: William Nylander, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:10TORMatthew Knies: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:43TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 13:24TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:04TBLMichael Eyssimont: Broken stick2 min
- P2 3:06TORJohn Klingberg: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 4:40TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Marner – Matthews8:25
xG 0.95–0.37 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Bertuzzi4:57
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Marner – Matthews6:55
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Holmberg4:18
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Klingberg8:42
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Rielly4:03
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Liljegren16:36
xG 1.05–0.87 (55%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet12:29
xG 1.20–0.55 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Paul – Jeannot – Merela8:53
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Sheary – Eyssimont7:58
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel10:20
xG 0.53–1.12 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak16:07
xG 1.06–0.70 (60%)attempts 18–23goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev13:32
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Perbix10:18
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).