Sat, Oct 21, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 013 | 18 | 132 |
| NSH | 19 | 212 | 213 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:15NSHSamuel FagemoPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:06NSHTommy NovakGWGAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 2:18NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 2:49NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Juuso Parssinen · Snap, 0.33 xG0–4
- P3 10:34SJSTomas HertlAssists: Mario Ferraro, Nikolai Knyzhov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 13:26NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:30SJSMackenzie Blackwood: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 18:53NSHJuuso Parssinen: Interference2 min
- P2 3:14SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:13NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:52SJSLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:52NSHKiefer Sherwood: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:49SJSMike Hoffman: Holding2 min
- P3 1:45SJSFabian Zetterlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:17SJSAnthony Duclair: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Duclair – Barabanov8:13
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Labanc – Sturm – Eklund2:11
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Zetterlund – Sturm2:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Ferraro4:54
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Benning – Rutta2:02
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Knyzhov3:01
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Parssinen9:10
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:46
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Smith7:35
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith2:19
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:13
xG 0.86–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Barrie – Lauzon10:52
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Carrier14:15
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).