Sat, Oct 21, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Boston Bruins 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 211 | 14 | 425 |
| LAK | 014 | 113 | 17 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:10BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:28LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:45BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Milan Lucic, Derek Forbort · Slap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 15:33BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:48BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
- P3 18:50LAKCarl GrundstromPPAssists: Matt Roy, Trevor Lewis · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:01BOSCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P1 3:06BOSJohn Beecher: Holding2 min
- P1 12:57LAKMikey Anderson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:11LAKArthur Kaliyev: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:16BOSCharlie Coyle: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:15BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:49BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:49LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:39LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:41BOSMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:36BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Geekie – Poitras3:01
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Pastrnak – Zacha3:43
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha4:58
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Marchand – Geekie – Poitras3:37
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – McAvoy5:28
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy10:47
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Mitchell2:46
xG 0.09–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:40
xG 1.09–0.47 (70%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere12:09
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte6:29
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev7:42
xG 0.17–0.19 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Roy5:34
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy8:51
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson9:27
xG 0.70–0.63 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).