Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Seattle Kraken 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 313 | 113 | 11 | 538 |
| DET | 011 | 18 | 38 | 00 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:07DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Olli Maatta, Daniel Sprong · Slap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 5:16SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 17:54SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:04SEATye KartyeAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 2:10DETShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 4:38DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 10:26DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:38SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 4:55SEAJordan EberleGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.30 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:30DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:30SEAMatty Beniers: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:07SEAJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 2:28SEAJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 5:10DETJustin Holl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05DETBen Chiarot: Playing without a helmet2 min
- P3 1:20SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16SEADevin Shore: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 7:14DETJustin Holl: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:09SEAAlexander Wennberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:09DETDaniel Sprong: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:12DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Kartye – Beniers10:54
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:31
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto3:10
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Tolvanen8:06
xG 0.25–0.86 (23%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin8:14
xG 1.00–0.45 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:43
xG 1.11–0.70 (61%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn15:26
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Sprong – Veleno8:38
xG 0.71–0.43 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Veleno – Raymond2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fischer – Czarnik – Berggren4:34
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond8:11
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere9:22
xG 0.89–0.64 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Holl – Gostisbehere2:33
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Holl13:22
xG 0.45–0.95 (32%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).