Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 110 | 14 | 220 |
| WPG | 08 | 214 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:55WPGDavid GustafssonAssists: Cole Perfetti, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 3:13WPGMason AppletonAssists: Adam Lowry, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 18:25STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:10WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 16:37STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 18:50WPGMorgan BarronENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:25STLMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:38STLBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:54WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:40WPGDylan Samberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:31WPGDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:01STLJakub Vrana: Interference2 min
- P3 8:46WPGBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas12:27
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Neighbours4:09
xG 0.06–0.08 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Blais3:53
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours3:24
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug14:36
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Scandella – Tucker6:34
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–2
- Leddy – Parayko16:35
xG 0.52–0.90 (37%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:28
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:56
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron2:32
xG 0.06–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Barron – Kupari – Gustafsson4:21
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:42
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg10:31
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk12:27
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).