Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 213 | 05 | 324 |
| NSH | 16 | 15 | 07 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:38NSHColton SissonsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:22VANPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Brock Boeser · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 3:11VANNils HoglanderGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 9:18NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Tommy Novak · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:42VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:18VANMark Friedman: Interference2 min
- P3 15:19VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:44NSHLuke Evangelista: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Suter8:09
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander7:11
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko10:47
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser12:22
xG 0.44–0.47 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes19:00
xG 0.88–0.23 (79%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Cole – Friedman12:12
xG 0.80–0.35 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Friedman – Hughes3:10
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Sherwood – Evangelista9:02
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Sissons – Trenin2:50
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith6:43
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:37
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:07
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Lauzon – Fabbro2:05
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).