Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Arizona Coyotes 3, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 29 | 011 | 327 |
| LAK | 310 | 18 | 210 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59ARIJack McBainAssists: Travis Boyd, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 8:13LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 10:35LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Blake Lizotte, Andreas Englund · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 12:34LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Mikey Anderson · Snap, 0.31 xG1–3
- P2 6:17ARINick BjugstadAssists: Lawson Crouse, Michael Carcone · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 7:39LAKBlake LizotteGWGAssists: Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
- P2 17:28ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 5:35LAKKevin FialaAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Jordan Spence · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–5
- P3 19:23LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Quinton Byfield, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:45ARINick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:22ARITravis Dermott: Holding2 min
- P2 16:09LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:36ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:08LAKQuinton Byfield: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:10ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:47LAKTrevor Moore: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:33ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Carcone6:25
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – McBain5:40
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
- Kerfoot – Maccelli – Cooley8:25
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:18
xG 0.42–0.85 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser11:36
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki11:24
xG 0.50–0.25 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Välimäki – Durzi2:45
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Dubois – Laferriere10:40
xG 1.01–0.27 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:39
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 3–8goals 2–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:39
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev8:17
xG 0.57–0.61 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson15:14
xG 1.31–0.50 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Spence3:11
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Roy14:03
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).