Fri, Oct 27, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 08 | 04 | 020 |
| CAR | 215 | 011 | 114 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10CARTeuvo TeravainenPPGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:10CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jalen Chatfield · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 6:06CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:50SJSLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:04SJSWilliam Eklund: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:04CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:21CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P2 1:30CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:46SJSGivani Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 13:58SJSGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:38SJSMike Hoffman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Kunin – Sturm – Eklund9:32
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Peterson – Zadina6:12
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
- Hertl – Duclair – Zetterlund9:36
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Labanc – Smith5:57
xG 0.04–0.57 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Emberson – Knyzhov2:22
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Knyzhov2:48
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Emberson13:51
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook9:43
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis3:28
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Kotkaniemi13:06
xG 0.97–0.75 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Noesen – Svechnikov – Drury5:00
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield12:39
xG 1.29–0.47 (73%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin14:26
xG 0.99–0.20 (83%)attempts 25–6goals 1–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo13:23
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).