Fri, Oct 27, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Los Angeles Kings 5, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 119 | 39 | 541 |
| ARI | 47 | 010 | 07 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Nick Bjugstad, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:56LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 7:46ARIJ.J. MoserAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 8:21ARIJack McBainAssists: Liam O'Brien, Troy Stecher · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 8:55ARISean DurziAssists: Zachary Sanford, Karel Vejmelka · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 16:11LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 1:50LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Jordan Spence · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 6:54LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 18:01LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Trevor Moore, Mikey Anderson · Slap, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:10ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:36ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:52LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P2 12:50LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:34ARIJack McBain: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47ARIZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:12ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:09
xG 1.08–0.46 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere9:14
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte8:55
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev13:21
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence8:33
xG 0.63–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Doughty – Anderson16:24
xG 0.84–1.18 (41%)attempts 27–14goals 2–1
- Gavrikov – Roy14:41
xG 0.18–0.82 (18%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Kerfoot – Maccelli11:00
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Sanford – Carcone – Cooley6:11
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:37
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Boyd – O'Brien – McBain7:49
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser14:50
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Brown – Välimäki8:37
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Durzi2:47
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).