Sat, Oct 28, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Seattle Kraken 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 114 | 13 | 016 | 233 |
| FLA | 014 | 213 | 110 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58SEAJared McCannAssists: Yanni Gourde, Will Borgen · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:34SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Will Borgen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 8:53FLAGustav ForslingPPAssists: Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:04FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Niko Mikkola · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 14:08FLANick CousinsGWGAssists: Josh Mahura, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:30FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:18SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:58
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Tolvanen11:32
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Eberle – Kartye – Beniers13:26
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto8:46
xG 0.13–0.31 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen16:33
xG 1.79–0.62 (74%)attempts 27–18goals 2–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin14:01
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Larsson2:15
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Lomberg – Luostarinen10:09
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Cousins – Lomberg – Lundell3:14
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen3:22
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell10:54
xG 0.77–0.76 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola14:10
xG 1.13–0.68 (63%)attempts 24–20goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mahura3:06
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis5:06
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).