Sun, Oct 29, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
San Jose Sharks 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 011 | 010 | 131 |
| WSH | 012 | 013 | 317 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40SJSLuke KuninAssists: Ty Emberson, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 2:18WSHDylan StromeAssists: Nick Jensen, Hardy Haman Aktell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 15:15WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:02WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:39SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:43SJSMario Ferraro: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:36SJSFabian Zetterlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Labanc – Smith5:21
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Eklund10:03
xG 0.66–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Hertl – Duclair – Zetterlund10:46
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Carpenter – Labanc – Zadina2:03
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Emberson16:06
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Benning – Rutta11:08
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Burroughs13:39
xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome12:36
xG 1.22–0.15 (89%)attempts 23–7goals 2–0
- Backstrom – Mantha – Phillips5:34
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Phillips – McMichael3:46
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Protas – Lapierre4:48
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Haman Aktell8:11
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry3:48
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry9:30
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).