Sun, Oct 29, 2023·Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, EdmontonOutdoor game
Calgary Flames 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 19 | 010 | 226 |
| EDM | 314 | 014 | 25 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19EDMBrett KulakAssists: Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:38EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 14:55CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 16:06EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:28CGYA.J. GreerPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 6:16EDMVincent DesharnaisAssists: Evander Kane, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 19:13EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:46EDMEvander Kane: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:25EDMLeon Draisaitl: Broken stick2 min
- P1 12:56EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:30EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:55CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P2 9:28EDMVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:05CGYDennis Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P3 12:35EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr7:01
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Coronato10:10
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:31
xG 0.34–1.00 (25%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Hunt – Dube11:00
xG 0.15–1.07 (12%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Zadorov – Solovyov2:50
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanifin13:47
xG 0.43–0.93 (32%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Gilbert10:49
xG 0.37–1.06 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins9:18
xG 1.03–0.34 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McDavid9:46
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Draisaitl – Holloway2:44
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Erne – Ryan – McLeod3:11
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse15:34
xG 1.09–0.42 (72%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Kulak – Broberg4:42
xG 0.62–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais6:33
xG 0.77–0.21 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).