Mon, Oct 30, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Anaheim Ducks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 110 | 29 | 427 |
| PIT | 17 | 118 | 117 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:28ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Max Jones, Pavel Mintyukov · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 11:51ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 19:25PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 1:25PITRadim ZohornaAssists: Drew O'Connor, Lars Eller · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 3:01ANAMason McTavishAssists: Ryan Strome, Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 19:47ANAMason McTavishSHGWGAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:00ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:26PITRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:37ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P2 3:17ANAAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 11:16PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20ANATrevor Zegras: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20ANAMason McTavish: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P2 19:25ANA: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 15:44PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:41ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:52ANASam Carrick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones8:28
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Terry – Zegras – Carlsson12:04
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish11:09
xG 0.63–0.91 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason6:50
xG 0.11–0.49 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov11:06
xG 0.60–0.88 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen12:11
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Fowler – LaCombe13:20
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – O'Connor – Zohorna9:39
xG 0.88–0.08 (92%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:08
xG 0.85–0.45 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell8:51
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari6:10
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves12:09
xG 1.54–0.42 (79%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:30
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:54
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).