Mon, Oct 30, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 110 | 117 | 03 | 1 | 239 |
| VGK | 112 | 12 | 05 | 06 | 2 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:06VGKPaul CotterPPAssists: William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:38MTLSean MonahanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 18:10VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:42MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Cole Caufield · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VGK Paul Cotter stopped
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 3. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 5. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 6. MTL Sean Monahan stopped
- 7. VGK Shea Theodore scored
- 8. MTL Alex Newhook stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:42MTLJordan Harris: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:43MTLMike Matheson: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:47MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03VGKBrett Howden: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:53VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:09VGKKaedan Korczak: Holding2 min
- P3 12:11VGKJack Eichel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 2:08MTLNick Suzuki: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Pearson – Monahan8:45
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard – Caufield10:18
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta5:34
xG 0.04–0.02 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Newhook – Slafkovský7:40
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron15:38
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Harris – Xhekaj7:54
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris4:10
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev7:08
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:00
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Stone – Karlsson – Dorofeyev2:08
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter8:43
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore13:56
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Martinez – Theodore2:17
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Hague – Korczak10:17
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).