Wed, Nov 1, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 314 | 05 | 430 |
| CGY | 113 | 112 | 122 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Chris Tanev, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 19:06DALJamie BennSHAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 1:57CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 4:35DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 10:07DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 19:48DALMason MarchmentGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 2:20CGYMacKenzie WeegarPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:10DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:01CGYConnor Zary: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:02DALWyatt Johnston: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:02CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Holding2 min
- P3 1:11DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32DALJason Robertson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:10DALCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment9:26
xG 1.42–0.27 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Steel – Dellandrea8:05
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:08
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:59
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen13:41
xG 1.82–0.40 (82%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:40
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist9:56
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 5–17goals 2–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Sharangovich – Zary10:13
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 19–5goals 1–2
- Backlund – Coleman – Hunt9:20
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane11:16
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Greer – Duehr – Coronato5:57
xG 0.21–1.12 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin13:34
xG 0.94–0.55 (63%)attempts 20–9goals 1–2
- Weegar – Andersson14:51
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Gilbert8:50
xG 0.27–1.53 (15%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).