Wed, Nov 1, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 29 | 112 | 013 | 01 | 335 |
| ANA | 26 | 011 | 110 | 12 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46ANATroy TerryPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:35ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 11:41ARILawson CrouseAssists: J.J. Moser, Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.36 xG1–2
- P1 14:51ARILogan CooleyAssists: J.J. Moser, Liam O'Brien · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 14:25ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 4:01ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:27ANATroy TerryGWGAssists: Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:39ARITravis Boyd: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:34ANABrett Leason: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14ARIClayton Keller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:18ARIBarrett Hayton: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:18ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:57ANABo Groulx: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:11ANAJackson LaCombe: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42ARIJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:44ARIJack McBain: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:39ANATrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:05ARISean Durzi: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:05ANAFrank Vatrano: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:05ARISean Durzi: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Groulx won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:46
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:15
xG 0.79–0.24 (76%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – McBain7:47
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boyd – Carcone – Cooley6:24
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Välimäki9:40
xG 0.92–0.06 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Durzi – Moser9:19
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Stecher – Moser2:56
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Leason – McTavish2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Groulx7:12
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Jones – Carlsson9:45
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 4–19goals 1–1
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason6:45
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Vaakanainen10:50
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov10:48
xG 0.08–0.42 (15%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe15:53
xG 0.56–1.48 (27%)attempts 9–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).