Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 212 | 06 | 229 |
| CBJ | 111 | 05 | 312 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:53TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:42TBLConor ShearyAssists: Steven Stamkos, Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 6:41CBJBoone JennerAssists: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 9:24CBJErik GudbransonGWGAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Adam Fantilli · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 17:49CBJJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Ivan Provorov, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:42CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:09CBJDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:18CBJBoone Jenner: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:18TBLWaltteri Merela: Interference2 min
- P2 13:24CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:10TBLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46TBLTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:52TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P3 19:05TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Paul – Sheary10:25
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Jeannot8:16
xG 0.34–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Glendening – Eyssimont – Merela5:57
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet8:15
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh11:39
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev2:54
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak10:54
xG 0.71–0.83 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Sillinger8:30
xG 0.79–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Danforth – Texier9:02
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic12:08
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Fantilli6:13
xG 0.21–0.72 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski14:12
xG 0.89–0.27 (77%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Bean7:49
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov4:28
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).