Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 110 | 17 | 227 |
| DET | 06 | 09 | 07 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:08FLASteven LorentzGWGAssists: Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 18:48FLAAnton LundellENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:23DETKlim Kostin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:38FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:52FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:19DETAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:21FLARyan Lomberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:21DETBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:49FLAKevin Stenlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:40DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:56DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:25FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell9:35
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:21
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Stenlund – Luostarinen6:50
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Lockwood5:06
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola11:32
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling11:28
xG 0.51–0.33 (60%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Mahura – Balinskis10:06
xG 0.24–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Perron – Copp – Compher7:38
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sprong – Rasmussen – Veleno6:58
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Fischer – Czarnik – Kostin5:19
xG 0.00–0.07 (6%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond9:58
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Holl13:58
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Walman2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere10:37
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).